The Obama Administration––What Volition They Create Next?

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The Obama Administration––What Volition They Create Next?

How’d yous similar to live on a wing on the wall inwards those White House wellness assist meetings this week?

It looks to me similar they guide hold ii choices—neither attractive to them:

1. Full Speed Ahead, Damn the Torpedoes – This mightiness also live on called the Pelosi Option for the Speaker’s intransigence for compromise. Just hold driving the existing Democratic bills through. This has the payoff of keeping the liberal wing of the Democratic Party happy but has some pretty tough potential negative consequences.

With a wellness assist blessing rating inwards the depression 40s, this invites the continued strong opposition on the correct as well as lots of continued middle-America nervousness over a “government takeover of the wellness assist system” as well as “spending some other trillion dollars when nosotros can’t afford it.” Even if Earth alternative is ditched, that agency continuing to force a chiliad page wellness assist mouth inwards an surround when the wellness assist reform good has probable been poisoned.

This alternative includes the threats for using reconciliation rules. As I guide hold said before, yous don’t ram anything through alongside a 41% wellness assist blessing rating. And that presumes the reconciliation persuasion makes feel inwards the outset place. I don’t recall it does:
  • The Republicans guide hold a ton of parliamentary maneuvers they tin sack utilization to necktie things upwards indefinitely.
  • The proposition to “split” the bills into i unpopular mouth as well as i pop bill––presuming moderate Democrats as well as some Republicans mightiness live on dumb plenty to vote for i as well as pretend that mo mouth had null to exercise alongside the to a greater extent than problematic outset one––is foolishness.
IF whatever of this did locomote as well as outcome inwards a real controversial mouth yous guide hold to wonder precisely what the consequences would live on come upwards Nov 2010—or fifty-fifty 2012. You also guide hold to wonder what the consequences would live on for precisely trying it.

2. Scale Health Care Reform Down to Something at Least Moderates inwards Both Parties Can Live With––This sounds easier than it actually is.

As I guide hold posted before, doing precisely wellness insurance reform would damage something precisely about a trillion dollars. Getting rid of pre-existing atmospheric condition provisions as well as medical underwriting requires getting nearly everyone inwards the wellness insurance puddle to avoid the insurers getting stuck alongside exclusively the sick. Health insurance subsidies to attain this are past times far the most expensive role of the existing bills. In the House bills, the insurance subsides are worth almost $775 billion as well as the Medicaid expansion is worth almost $450 billion more. Scale those subsidies dorsum as well as yous are yet inwards the $800 billion to $1 trillion range.

A mouth that costs that much yet scares those worried that this sort of entitlement expansion is also costly—particularly because the bills on the tabular array then far guide hold had piddling inwards the way of existent damage containment.

An fifty-fifty to a greater extent than pocket-size mouth would probable live on necessary to larn moderates onside.

You could likely larn a smaller damage bill—perhaps $250 billion over 10 years—by targeting subsidies on the little employer market. Dollars could live on targeted, express inwards scope, as well as brand a “down payment” toward roofing at to the lowest degree a few meg people. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 targeted expansion of Medicaid could live on role of such a parcel but nowhere close the 130% target inwards existing bills.

This has the payoff of creating a mouth yous could probable larn moderate Democrats as well as fifty-fifty a lot of Republicans to support. It would settle downward voter opposition.

But it would also found a “huge missed opportunity” to actually create a universal wellness insurance system. Liberals would probable become ballistic believing the White House has abandoned the signature domestic hope of the campaign.
***

The Democrats are inwards a hell of a wellness assist political hole.

Neither of these options is politically attractive--each has both extreme chance as well as consequences.

Sort of reminds me of what Stan told Ollie: “Well, here’s some other overnice [health assist reform] mess you’ve gotten me into.”

Or, yous could precisely hope for a miracle telephone call:

Earlier post: There Will Not Be Health Care Reform inwards 2009 Without Republican Leadership


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